Hurricane Franklin Forecast Discussion Number 46

By | September 1, 2023

WTNT43 KNHC 010244

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

Convection is separating from the low-level circulation of Franklin
this evening.  Infrared satellite imagery show the coldest cloud
tops limited to the southeast quadrant, confirming the cyclone is
experiencing significant vertical wind shear.  Subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease
and range from 70-77 kt.  The initial intensity has been lowered to
75 kt for this advisory.

Franklin is forecast to complete its extratropical transition during
the next day or so.  However, global models indicate it will remain
a powerful system despite losing its tropical characteristics.
Therefore, the official intensity forecast shows Franklin gradually
weakening before becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone.
A faster weakening trend is predicted later in the forecast period,
similar to the previous prediction and lies on the higher end of
the guidance envelope.

The hurricane is moving to the east-northeast at 13 kt. The track 
reasoning remains unchanged.  An acceleration generally 
northeastward is expected during the next couple of days as the 
hurricane is steered by the flow between a subtropical ridge over 
the central Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the coast of 
Atlantic Canada.  The track guidance is in good agreement and little 
changes have been made to the official forecast.


INIT  01/0300Z 36.8N  58.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 38.1N  56.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 40.0N  51.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 42.2N  47.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  03/0000Z 44.3N  43.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  03/1200Z 46.0N  39.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  04/0000Z 47.3N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  05/0000Z 50.1N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  06/0000Z 53.2N  25.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Forecaster Bucci

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