Hurricane Franklin Forecast Discussion Number 24

By | August 26, 2023

895 
WTNT43 KNHC 261447
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 26 2023

Franklin has become better organized this morning on satellite and 
microwave imagery.  An earlier SSMIS microwave pass showed a 
developing core with the mid and low-level center becoming more 
vertically aligned. Early visible satellite images showed a ragged 
eye, which has become cloud filled in the last hour or two.  Deep 
convection around Franklin has become more symmetric compared to 
recent days, likely due to a decrease in vertical wind shear.  Air 
Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been in the system 
this morning, and found that the surface pressure has dropped to 
989 mb and SFMR winds were around 60 to 65 kt from both aircraft. 
Given the data from the aircraft reconnaissance, Franklin has been 
upgraded to a Hurricane, with the initial intensity set at 65 kt. 
Franklin is the second hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane 
season.

Franklin is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt.  A
north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast during the next 
few days as the storm moves along the western periphery of a 
mid-level ridge, taking it to the west of Bermuda on Tuesday.  By 
the middle of next week, a faster northeastward motion is expected 
when Franklin moves in between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level 
trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern United States.  The 
track models have shifted to the west once again this cycle, and the 
NHC track forecast follows that trend and is slightly slower than 
the previous one at long ranges.

Franklin is expected to steadily strengthen during the next few days 
with lower vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures in 
the western Atlantic.  Franklin is forecast to become a major 
hurricane early next week.  The strengthening trend should end in 
about 3 to 4 days with shear expected to increase. By Day 5, the 
system will move over much cooler SSTs leading to increased 
weakening.  The intensity models are higher this cycle, and the NHC 
forecast has been nudged upward, but still remains below the IVCN 
and HCCA consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 23.5N  66.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 24.2N  67.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 25.4N  67.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 27.0N  68.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 28.5N  69.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 30.2N  69.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 31.9N  69.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 35.6N  65.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  31/1200Z 40.5N  56.9W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch


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