Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 23

000
WTNT25 KNHC 170855
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
0900 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N  64.8W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 210SE 110SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 285SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N  64.8W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N  65.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.3N  64.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.6N  63.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.6N  62.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.8N  61.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N  57.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  80SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N  51.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 51.5N  32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 150SE 130SW   0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N  64.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE