Hurricane Earl Forecast Advisory Number 19

By | September 7, 2022

446 
WTNT21 KNHC 071443
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022
1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N  65.7W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N  65.7W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N  65.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.8N  65.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.5N  65.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.4N  64.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.0N  61.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 160SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 36.4N  57.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 230SE 200SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 40.1N  53.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.
34 KT...220NE 270SE 230SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 45.0N  49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 47.0N  47.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N  65.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



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