Hurricane Earl Forecast Advisory Number 18

By | September 7, 2022

000
WTNT21 KNHC 070851
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022
0900 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N  65.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N  65.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  65.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.4N  65.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.9N  65.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.7N  64.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 31.8N  63.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  45SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 140SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 34.5N  60.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE  90SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 37.9N  55.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 190SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 43.6N  48.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 45.3N  46.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N  65.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Leave a Reply