Hurricane Danielle Forecast Discussion Number 15

By | September 4, 2022

186 
WTNT45 KNHC 042032
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
500 PM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

Danielle's satellite presentation continues to gradually improve.  
A microwave pass from earlier this afternoon showed a well-defined 
band wrapping around most the center of circulation and only open 
to the south.  While a scatterometer pass missed the inner core, it 
did measure the periphery of the hurricane and revealed that the 
tropical-storm-force winds over the eastern semicircle of the 
circulation extended slightly less from the center than previously 
estimated.  The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB were both 77 kt, and therefore the initial intensity is 
increased to 75 kt.

There is still about a 24-hour window in which global model 
guidance suggests oceanic and atmospheric conditions should be 
conducive for slight strengthening.  Danielle is expected to begin 
weakening beyond 24 hours when the system traverses cooler ocean 
surface temperatures and encounters stronger deep-layer wind shear.  
The official intensity forecast now shows Danielle reaching its peak 
intensity in 12 hours.  The system is still expected to become a 
post-tropical cyclone in 5 days.

The hurricane appears to be making its anticipated turn to the 
north with a motion of 360/2 kt. Over the next few days, 
Danielle is expected to turn to the northeast and accelerate ahead 
of a trough currently located over eastern Canada.  As the storm 
reaches higher latitudes, it will likely turn east-northeastward in 
the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is very similar 
to the previous prediction and lies closest to the correct consensus 
model aid. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 38.5N  45.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 39.1N  44.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 40.2N  43.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 41.2N  42.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 42.1N  40.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 42.9N  37.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 44.0N  34.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 45.9N  27.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 47.0N  19.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi


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